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January 29, 2008
Why it's best not to predict
Will Tom Brady's ankle affect the outcome of the Super Bowl?
The answer is: It's impossible to know. Too many other variables are at play. It may be fun to talk about, but it's not very productive.
That's essentially the upshot in this talked-about Fast Company piece, which aims to slay "The Tipping Point" as a mythological dragon of marketing. Viral marketing, especially. Creating a societal trend is the Holy Grail of viral marketing, from which golden riches are promised to freely flow.
The reality, of course, is that devising a program to go "viral" is like an amateur daytrading in the stock market. There are too many variables, many of them unknowable or immeasurable, so you takes your chances. The odds in Vegas are probably better.
What causes reverberations across the cultural landscape could be tipped by a few influential people, but probably not. Predicting culture is impossible. There are just too many variables. The outcome, according to the more convincing Black Swan theory, is usually unexpected. Even random.
What's not said in the FC piece is that only about 1 percent of the world's marketers need worry about the ramifications of widespread cultural influence.
Therefore, the work that matters most requires the patience and tenacity of an old-fashioned farmer: building and maintaining a strong reputation for service, making products that matter, continually investing in people, technology and operations and creating a community for your customer evangelists.
Those are the seeds of word of mouth, which is not at all like viral marketing.
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Ben,
For those 1% of marketers who do have to worry about widespread phenomenon, “randomness” and “unpredictableness” must be very scary words indeed. For the rest of us, I like your farming analogy – farming is not done by planting a few seeds which in turn spread to a whole field of crops. A farm is successful by spreading many seeds coupled with meticulous care and attention.
Ben,
What I found interesting (and, I admit, refreshing) in the FC article was the egalitarian nature of idea spreading: that there aren't really any specially-annointed influentials, but "regular Joes" are almost as likely to create trends and spread ideas.
Being meticulous and planting lots of customer service seeds is unacceptable and a yawn-inducing branding practice. Being unböring (thanks, Ikea) takes guts and grace (thanks, Robyn Waters).
I am neither interested, nor intrigued, by “Play-It-Safe" brads. So, to the Play-It-Safe brands out there, I say this: shake it up! If you are not willing to risk it all for greater glory, we will not be willing to admire you. Worse, we will force you to compete on price, fighting commoditization all the way to the bank.
Think about it, do we give a premium price to the plumber, simply because he offers quality service? Better yet, do we happily give a premium price to the plumber? Hell to the no.
And yet, we practically trip over ourselves to throw our money at Apple, BMW, and Glacéau (Vitaminwater, anyone? Coke said, “I’ll have some—to the tune of $4 billion.”).
Whom do we admire? It's the René Lacoste's of this world: those who refused to maintain the status quo, but instead asked the simple question, "Why?" In 1927, at the Roland Garros finals, René destroyed tradition, wearing a self-made shirt that had (gasp) short sleeves. The final was almost cancelled due to his kit indiscretions. He stood firm, took a stand, and shocked the world.
What is mundane today once likely once taboo. Don’t be mundane today, strive to be mundane in 10 years. And, in half that time, innovate again and again, so that you will never be boring, but, rather, unböring. Or, to paraphrase Timmy Turner’s dad on The Fairly Odd Parents, “safe is for squares.”
While 003's comments seem hip and trendy, they don't represent how the world works 99% of the time.
What I believe Ben is saying is that you can't count on being talked about just because you have persuaded some mythical influentials to champion your company. Instead, you have to create a solid set of experiences that help people create a rich, multi-faceted story in their mind that they can talk about.
There is nothing "play-it-safe" or boring about this. In fact, this is how the world works 99% of the time, outside of the very small slice of the marketplace that is dictated by fashion and mega-hits.
If you can't predict who will talk about you, then focus on people for their value as a customer, not just because you think they are an influential, and create a clear, compelling sense of brand harmony that helps them say, "I get it."
I've seen many "boring" companies, to paraphrase 003, that have passionate, committed customers and get a significant amount of business from word of mouth and referrals. This is the real world, not some myth based on the ads in Vanity Fair. And as for Ikea? We stopped shopping there because, while unboring, the real, live touchpoints of customer service were a disaster for us.
No offense, 003, but I WILL pay a premium for a plumber who gives quality service. Do you know how hard it is to find a good plumber these days??!!
I agree with Ben: I think going after the influentials is a communication theory that is muddled in the digital age. I find that meaningful brand engagement activities, direct messaging, and superior customer service are the best ways to engage, re-engage and retain customers in the long run. Wanna make a splash with customers and get them talking? Deliver them something beyond what they expect - in product, customer service or quality. Works every time.
I wholeheartedly agree.
I was hired at the company I work at with the intention of being part of their marketing team. As just a little side project, I was given the duty of answering a lot of our user feedback (as no one else wanted to really). And so I started to figure out frequently requested/reported suggestions and problems.
Ultimately though, this aspect of my job BECAME my job. Bloggers write us up sometimes stating how impressed they were with our timely response to them. This, I think anyway, has been far more effective of a marketing tool than any other failed attempts I naively tried when starting my career in marketing (I think my first attempts at getting viral looked sleezy and always backfired by giving our company a bad rep).
Being an ethical, responsive, attentive, approachable & interactive/participatory company is the best marketing tool I have found so far.
